Dynasty rankings are always a snapshot in time, but maybe never more than right now. From the end of the Super Bowl to the start of free agency it feels like a stable time when very little should change. Don't be fooled, this is the calm before the storm. In the next three months chaos is going to reign in these rankings and others. The best we can do is know where the volatility is going in.
At the tight end position, the most obvious candidate for volatility is Travis Kelce. Any day now he could announce his retirement and his Dynasty value would fall to zero. But what if he returns? I think the picture may be rosier than current consensus, and I say this as someone who had him on my bust list last season.
Kelce finished last season as TE7 per game with an average of 12.3 FPPG. That's 1.5 FPPG better than both Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta. This, despite the fact that Kelce scored three. touchdowns last year while Andrews scored 11 and LaPorta scored seven. Touchdowns are about the least predictable part of of Fantasy production and if Kelce comes back next year, I would expect him to score more often.
On a more positive note, Kelce ranked third in catches last year, behind only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. He was also fifth in receiving yards, behind those two and Goerge Kittle and Jonnu Smith. These numbers suggest to me that if Kelce comes back it is more likely that the the touchdowns regress and Kelce is once again a top five tight end, if not the league-winning option he used to be.
The one thing that could negatively impact that is if Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are both healthy and active for 17 games next year. Rice in particular seemed to have a negative impact on Kelce's target share when he was healthy earlier in the year. Of course, Rice is recovering from a torn PCL and could potentially face a suspension at some point this year. If Kelce is back and Rice is forecast to miss significant time, Kelce could still be a needle mover at the position. Of course, it's worth saying once more than he could also retire and it wouldn't surprise anyone.
I had Scott Boulanger on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty to discuss the anatomy of a top-6 Dynasty tight ends and how many 2025 prospects fit the bill. Check it out:
Here are my updated Dynasty tight end rankings:
